Hurricane fantasies

The Sun-Sentinel at 11 a.m. reported the following on now Hurricane Dean.

Now forecast to mushroom into a Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph sustained winds, Tropical Storm Dean was still in position to easily attack the U.S. East Coast as it plowed west across the Atlantic on Wednesday.

Above emphasis is mine.

Bob Norman at the Daily Pulp wrote-

Easily? Well it's going to defy the laws of meteorology by plowing through a high-pressure area to its north to get here. And it's also going to have to beat every forecaster's prediction in the world at this point.

So lets take a look at the National Hurricane Center's 5-day map. The cone, even at the extreme northern end is 100 or so miles from Key West. As a veteran of the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons, I know from experience with Jeanne and Frances and how they effected parts of Broward and Miami-Dade County 100 miles away.

If you don't believe me, check the Sun-Sentinel's own reporting.

All the computer simulations used to forecast hurricanes and their path, has Dean passing well to the south of here. The northern edge of the cone is the NHC's way of being cautious.

Which is the last thing the Sun-Sentinel's reporting is. How is a storm likely to pass 200 or more miles to the south of the Florida Keys able to 'easily attack' the east coast of the US?

It can't and the Sentinel's hurricane blogger Ken Kaye wrote-

I received a few nasty emails this morning from folks who think I over-hyped the Dean story in today's newspaper - unnecessarily tried to scare people - by saying the system was still in position to attack the U.S. East Coast.

Bob Norman also blasted me in his Pulp blog.

Even my colleague Mike Mayo thinks we've been overplaying Dean.

Honestly, I wasn't trying to scare people.

But admittedly, in retrospect, the wording should have better reflected that the threat to Florida, while still real, has diminished considerably.

The trouble is Ken, its the first paragraph of your story. It is 100% misleading and does a disservice. In simple words- Ken you screwed up.

Another thing is, look carefully at the Sun-Sentinel's five day map.(Note the Sentinel is using one posted at the Weather underground website) Then compare it to the NHC's five-day map. You'll note the Sentinel's map puts Key West and the very southern keys in the five-day cone. The National Hurricane Center doesn't.

So what happened down in Fort Lauderdale, an honest mistake or sensational news reporting? I wouldn't call the map mistake careless, because the difference is too clear to the naked eye. What are people supposed to think when they see the cone touching the Keys?

Go and visit the Sun-Sentinel webpage of course. While you're at it, maybe pay attention to the advertisements there. What does that say about the journalistic principles practiced at the Fort Lauderdale based newspaper? I would have given the Sun-Sentinel a Knucklehead award, but t there are far more worthy candidates for tomorrow than a second or third rate newspaper.

Note- This blogger who allows me to guest blog at his site, looks to be in danger from Dean. Good luck Bullwinkle.

Linked to- Bright & Early, Perri Nelson, Pirate's Cove, The World According to Carl,