Chris and Fidel updates

Or what all the excitement is about here in South Florida at the moment. I'll already longing for an alligator story.

First a tropical update-

UNLIKE PREVIOUS RUNS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...ESPECIALLY NOGAPS...NOW HANG ONTO CHRIS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ALBEIT A SMALL COMPACT ONE. THE
GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...NOGAPS...AND UKMET MODELS HAVE MADE A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD SHIFT AND ARE NOW ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE ALSO SHIFTED NORTHWARD AND NO LONGER TAKE CHRIS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE LONE OUTLIER MODEL APPEARS TO BE THE GFDL...WHICH
ALMOST IMMEDIATELY TAKES CHRIS DUE WEST ACROSS THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND INTO HISPANIOLA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A
LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE GFDL MODEL BEING A LARGE OUTLIER. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...UKMET...AND NOGAPS CONSENSUS FORECAST PLACES CHRIS VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA IN 120 HOURS...AND SUBSEQUENT FORECAST TRACKS MAY HAVE TO SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH IF THOSE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. THE GFS-BASED SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL INDICATES THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 5-10 KT BY 96 AND 120 HOURS...YET SHOWS LITTLE
INTENSIFICATION AND BARELY MAKES CHRIS A HURRICANE

So Chris is expected to be a hurricane and the forecasted track has been shifted slightly north. All of South Florida but most particularly the Keys will have to watch this storm.

As for that Latin-American dictator, here's the latest-

HAVANA - The Cuban government sought to reassure citizens after Fidel Castro temporarily ceded power for the first time in 47 years, releasing a statement from the world's longest-serving head of government saying his health is stable, his spirits good and the defense of the island guaranteed.

His brother and designated successor, Raul Castro, remained silent and out of sight, issuing no statements of his own.

"The important thing is that in the country everything is going perfectly well, and will continue to do so," said the statement by the elder Castro, who temporarily handed power to his brother on Monday night after surgery.

The focus of state media remained solely on Fidel. "Fidel, Get Well," read a front-page headline in the Communist Party daily, Granma. "The Revolution Will Continue While Fidel Recovers," proclaimed Juventud Rebelde, the Communist youth newspaper.

Castro, 79, acknowledged the operation was serious, saying "I cannot make up positive news." But he said his health was "stable" and "as for my spirits, I feel perfectly fine," according to the statement read on government television Tuesday night.

He apologized for not giving more details, but said the threat posed to his government by the U.S. means his health must be treated as "a state secret." No images of the leader were shown.

Almost any inpatient operation for a man of Castro's age is serious. Many are speculating Castro is dead or dying. I've already said the later is true. My other views from yesterday on life after Fidel Castro still hold.

Our local media is paying alot of attention to events in Cuba. A Miami television station pre-empting regular programming for a special. The Miami Herald isn't reporting much news except for Fidel and the local reaction here in South Florida. Seventy miles north here in Palm Beach County, the Palm Beach Post had sizable coverage. Even extending to the sports page. All of this makes me wonder.

If this is the coverage while Castro is alive, what will it be like when Fidel dies?

Note- Babalu blog is still busy with the Cuba/Castro story and if you want to read more I suggest you visit that site. Val just told the NYT what they can do with themselves.

Open Post- Blue Star, Right Wing Nation, Bright & Early,