NFL Draft Day

Today is the big day. Who will the Miami Dolphins pick?

MIAMI - The Miami Dolphins' track record drafting quarterbacks in the first round is so good they might want to think about doing it more often.

In the past 40 years, they've used a No. 1 choice on a quarterback only twice: Bob Griese in 1967 and Dan Marino in 1983. Both are members of the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

With four selections in the first three rounds, the Dolphins are almost certain to pick a passer Saturday, perhaps even in the opening round to acquire Notre Dame's Brady Quinn.

Possibilities in the second or third round include Trent Edwards of Stanford, John Beck of Brigham Young, Matt Moore of Oregon State, Drew Stanton of Michigan State and James Pinkney of East Carolina.

One of them likely will be the first quarterback drafted by Miami since Josh Heupel of Oklahoma in the sixth round in 2001.

My own take on Brady Quinn- He is overrated and overpriced. I don't think he'll drop to Miami and the 9th pick. If he did, Miami needs to (pardon the pun)pass on the former Notre Dame QB. Ideally, Miami would take OT Levi Brown at #9, and if Brown isn't available take the best linebacker or Defensive Tackle available. The Dolphins should trade down before taking Quinn. I think that QB will be an NFL along the lines of another Notre Dame sure thing. His name was Rick Mirer.

James Joyner at OTB Sports thinks Quinn would be a decent QB. Is decent worth a 9th pick? Dave George at the Palm Beach Post writes-

If Quinn does fall all the way to No. 9, though, getting past Cleveland and Minnesota and whoever else is desperate to lay the cornerstone for a new offensive attack, the Dolphins should pass on the passer and take Penn State offensive tackle Levi Brown instead.

There's just such little chance that Quinn would move Miami appreciably closer to a playoff spot in 2007, and, face it, that is the minimal standard of progress after five years on the outs.

This judgment is not solely based on Quinn's failure to lift his college team to winning efforts against more talented teams. The larger problem is that quarterbacks taken high in the first round are overwhelmingly set up to fail, certainly in the short run and probably in the long.

Fifteen times since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970 the team with the No. 1 pick overall has used it on a quarterback. Not one of those teams made the playoffs in the star passer's rookie season and most produced horrible records, averaging out at 5-11, at a time when fans were primed for a one-man miracle.

John Elway doesn't count, either, since he actually was drafted by the Baltimore Colts in 1983 and traded to Denver, a more credible team.

Widen out the search and it doesn't get much better. For instance, 43 quarterbacks have been drafted at No. 10 or better since the merger. Only one of those teams qualified for the playoffs in the quarterback's rookie season. That was San Diego in 2004, when Philip Rivers, the No. 4 pick overall, sat the bench all season behind veteran Drew Brees.

There's a reason, in short, why a franchise finds itself with a high pick to spend. Teams in that position are generally lousy, or at least threadbare in all the wrong places. Put a kid quarterback, any kid quarterback, in that spot and he's bound to get pounded for some time to come.

Miami isn't going to be a good team this year. Dolphin management needs to look long-term not short. A quarterback is needed, but wait till the second round. My own favorite for Miami to draft would be Trent Edwards of Stanford or John Beck of Brigham Young. Beck should be available in the 2nd round and Miami should draft him.

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