They didn't get the memo Part II
George Bennett writes the following in today's Palm Beach Post.
Forget about a honeymoon. Before Democrats Tim Mahoney and Ron Klein are even sworn in as members of the 110th Congress, Republicans are already speculating about how to win back their heretofore GOP-leaning House seats in 2008.Here is another example of people at the Post not getting out much. The speculation about who would run for President in 2008 started the day after the 2004 election.
That's what politics has become- 24/7 Talking heads and political blogging. When one election cycle ends, the next starts up immediately.
After a lackadasical start, Bennett does get around to who may be the potential GOP candidates for the Florida 16th and FL 22nd in 2008.
Negron seems to be the GOP's leading 2008 contender, if he wants a rematch.I'm not sold on Negron being the best candidate in the 16th and think voters felt the same on November 7th. It would be wiser to find someone else. With the right candidate, the GOP should be able to win back the 16th in 2008.
"I have always been interested in public service and I'm sure that will continue, but I'm spending time with my family and I'm not addressing that issue," Negron told the Politics column.
State Rep. Gayle Harrell, R-Port St. Lucie, has shown interest in the past. Jupiter attorney Tom Rooney, whose family owns the Pittsburgh Steelers, is another possibility for either Mahoney's or Klein's seat.
On the other hand there is the FL 22nd.
Klein presents a tougher challenge for the GOP after he unseated 26-year Republican U.S. Rep. Clay Shaw in a hard race for a soft Republican district. Klein raised $4.1 million as a challenger and will be harder to beat as a majority-party incumbent in a presidential year in a district that votes for Dems for president.
When it was assumed Shaw would leave on his own terms, Republican names bandied about as potential successors included Boca Mayor Steven Abrams, state Sen. Jeff Atwater and state Reps. Ellyn Bogdanoff, Carl Domino and Adam Hasner. They continue to be worth watching as potential Klein challengers, but Atwater and Hasner would have to shelve leadership ambitions and Domino staggered to reelection Tuesday. Wealthy young Delray activist Nick Loeb is another potential candidate.
County GOP Chairman Sid Dinerstein, always promoting his party's talent, lists County Commissioner Mary McCarty and nearly every other coastal GOP officeholder and activist as a possible Klein foe. McCarty's reaction: "No, no, no. Nope. No, no, no, no. Not even maybe."
I think the GOP's chances of winning back the 22nd won't be good for sometime. There are a couple of reasons for my opinion.
1- An incumbent will always have the advantage in this balanced district no matter what party they represent.
2- The lack of a strong Republican to challenge Klein. McCarty is the strongest but PB County residents have a love hate relationship with this commissioner. Most everyone has a strong opinion about McCarty one way or another, and I'm not particularly enamored of her because of questionable ethics in the past.
Also McCarty is unlikely to run based on the memory of another PBC commissioner Carol Roberts who tried to unseat Shaw in 2002. Roberts was more popular than McCarty and lost 60-40 in that election.
The other possibilities that Bennett mentions don't stand out either. Wouldn't a chance at being Congressman be better in regards to a long-term political career than a leadership spot in the Florida House where one will eventually have to leave the legislature due to term limits? If that's holding back Atwater and Hasner, then these men have little ambition in TFM's opinion and the FL 22nd would be better off without them. Also Atwater is another politician with a history of ethics lapses. As to Hasner, he got one of my awards.
Bottom line- I don't see the GOP winning back the FL 22nd till after re-districting in 2012 and maybe not then either.
Linked to- Bright & Early, Third World County, Right Wing Nation,