Florida 22nd Polling data- It is very close

From the Palm Beach Post-

Democrats released a poll Tuesday that says congressional challenger Ron Klein is within striking distance of Republican U.S. Rep. E. Clay Shaw with eight weeks left in their nationally watched race.

The Aug. 20-24 poll of 400 likely voters in Palm Beach-Broward District 22 shows Shaw leading, 42 percent to 38 percent. The poll by Benenson Strategy Group has a 4.9 percent margin of error, according to a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee memo. The DCCC said it commissioned the poll as an independent expenditure without coordinating with Klein's campaign.

Republicans were dismissive of the poll, but declined to release any internal polls of their own.

The DCCC poll showed 41 percent of those surveyed gave President Bush a favorable rating and 52 percent rated him unfavorably. Asked about the direction of the country, 32 percent said the U.S. is on the "right track" and 59 percent said "wrong track."

Both campaigns have reacted to Bush's anemic poll numbers. Klein has repeatedly tried to link Shaw to the president. Shaw, meanwhile, is described in his ads as "independent," with one spot highlighting his disagreement with Bush on Social Security.

The DCCC poll was taken just before the Shaw campaign began airing its first negative ads against Klein. It's the first poll released by either side since more than a year ago, when the National Republican Congressional Committee publicized a May 2005 survey showing Shaw with a 56-to-37 percent lead.

Without more particulars about the poll's sampling, it is impossible to judge its reliability. It is still TFM's opinion that the Shaw-Klein race will be very close, and Clay Shaw will win but by a smaller margin than the 2002 outcome which was the last time Shaw was seriously challenged. Shaw won then 60-40 but in 2000 only held onto the seat by less than 1,000 votes. This race continues to be important in determining who controls the US House.

Linked to- Bright & Early, Customer Servant