I thought we had global warming

Some news from the Sun-Sentinel

Last July saw five named storms, including three hurricanes, the most active on record. It helped make 2005 the busiest year on record, with 28 storms, including 15 hurricanes.

What's different this year: Strong upper-level winds are inhibiting tropical systems from forming, said Jeff Masters, chief meteorologist for The Weather Underground, a weather-tracking Web site.

"A developing tropical storm is very fragile," he said. "The winds blow away all the heat and moisture that the storm needs to develop. Once a storm becomes a fully developed hurricane, it is less fragile."

Another good sign this year for South Florida is that so far the Bermuda High, an area of high pressure in the Atlantic, does not extend as far west as it did last year. That means storms likely would be steered around its edge to the north of this region, Masters said.

But he cautioned that conditions could change quickly.

"The pattern could easily shift to one less favorable for South Florida during the months of hurricane season that really count, August through October," he said. "But so far, this pattern has held for six weeks, and it is common for these type of patterns to go on for two to three months."

Although no tropical threats were on the horizon on Tuesday, a tropical wave was expected to bring about an inch of rain to South Florida today, the National Weather Service in Miami said.

Wasn't it barely six weeks ago when forecasters were saying we'd have a very active hurricane season?

"For the 2006 north Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA is predicting 13 to 16 named storms, with eight to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which four to six could become 'major' hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher," added retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.

What Dr. Lautenbacher and Mr. Masters are saying is they don't have a clue. Long range weather forecasting is guesswork, just likes sports predicting. Then anyone can do the later, the rest spend years studying to get a PHD so they can make their guesses.

Open Post- Basil's Blog, Bright & Early,
Cross posted to Bullwinkle Blog