1994
is the year Washington Post columnist E.J. Dionne Jr forgets in his column yesterday.
Elections at midterm can be low-interest affairs or immensely important. This fall's congressional elections will be a big show with large consequences, because 2006 is looking a lot like the political years 1958, 1966 and 1978, all of which heralded major political transformations.
The Democratic sweep in 1958 presaged the party's strength in the Kennedy-Johnson years. Democratic dominance peaked in LBJ's 1964 landslide. But just two years later, big Republican gains signaled problems in the Democratic coalition that the party struggles with to this day.
The 1978 elections during Jimmy Carter's presidency marked the emergence of a powerful New Right that swept Ronald Reagan into office in 1980 and continues to be the dominant force in the Republican Party.
All true so far about those mid-term elections. Mr. Dionne goes on to opine on how the 2006 election will be a test of the Bush-Rove strategy for a new Republican era.
Dr. Steven Taylor takes serious exception to Dionne's conclusions, calling it wishful analysis. I agree with most of what my fellow blogger says with the caveats that its way too early to
1- Know the political climate of this coming November.
and
2- Very few political pundits liberal or democrat foresaw the dramatic 1994 changes in Congress even days before the election.
Which brings me back to 1994. Why did Mr. Dionne omit it? A Democrat was President, Democrats had control of both houses. The congressional elections went in favor of the opposition party. Doesn't it meet the same criteria as 58, 66 and 78?
The political transformation of 1994 was much more dramatic than three elections too. The majority party in both houses of Congress changed. So why was it excluded? Because it was a Republican year? But so was 66 and 78.
By the way no mention is made of 1974 either. The Democrats made huge gains in the House. Getting its biggest majority ever I believe. The GOP held the White House, Ford was President then. Though most would put the reason behind what happened in 74 as the result of Watergate.
I just find this interesting. If anyone thinks I'm wrong, say so. I'm going to email Dionne this post. Maybe I'll get a comment.
Open Post- Third World County, TMH's Bacon Bits,
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