DENVER - The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season should be "very active," with nine hurricanes and a good chance that at least one major hurricane will hit the U.S. coast, a top researcher said Tuesday.Gray is back with his guesswork. It didn't impress me last year and doesn't this year. Long range weather forecasting is impossible. It is well documented that weather can't be be accurately predicted past 72 hours, but this so called expert thinks he can tell us what will happen over a 6 month period almost two months away.
Forecaster William Gray said he expects 17 named storms in all this year, five of them major hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. The probability of a major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coast this year: 74 percent, compared with the average of 52 percent over the past century, he said.
Last year, Gray's forecast and government forecasts were higher than what the Atlantic hurricane season produced.
There were 10 named Atlantic storms in 2006 and five hurricanes, two of them major, in what was considered a "near normal" season. None of those hurricanes hit the U.S. Atlantic coast — only the 11th time that has occurred since 1945.
The MSM just has to give us their daily sampling of doom and gloom. Here's my prediction, we'll have somewhere between 5 and 25 named Atlantic storms in 2007. I make a bet I'm right. So when is AP going to come knocking at my door?
Note- Here are Gray's guesses of 2006. Here, here, and here.
Steven Taylor at Poliblog and Polimom aren't impressed either.
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