Here we go again?

Tropical Storm Chris is out there. The five-day forecast sends it over Southern Florida or the keys. According to forecaster Stewart-

THE FUTURE TRACK OF CHRIS HINGES HEAVILY UPON JUST HOW STRONG THE CYCLONE BECOMES. MY FEELING NOW IS THAT CHRIS SHOULD REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE 120-H FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH IS IN CONTRAST TO ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL. BY 72 HOURS...CHRIS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AND BE DRIVEN WESTWARD OVER OR SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...OR DISSIPATE COMPLETELY.
PART OF THE RAPID DISSIPATION FORECAST BY THE MODELS MAY BE DUE TO POOR INITIALIZATION. A STRONGER AND SOMEWHAT LARGER CYCLONE MAY
RESULT IN A DIFFERENT PROGNOSIS OF THE 06Z MODEL RUNS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ALTHOUGH IT NOW EXTENDS OUT TO 120 HOURS...AND IS A LITTLE NORTH OF AND SLOWER THAN THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE VERTICAL SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING CHRIS IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME
SLOW SLOW STRENGTHENING. THE MAIN DILEMMA IS JUST HOW STRONG CHRIS WILL BECOME. CHRIS IS FORECAST TO PASS BETWEEN TWO MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL LOWS CURRENTLY LOCATED EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE TWO LOWS AND THEN MOVE THEM IN TANDEM WESTWARD AFTER 72 HOURS... WITH CHRIS LIKELY WEDGED IN BETWEEN. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WOULD NORMALLY FAVOR A LOW SHEAR PATTERN THAT WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR MORE STRENGTHENING THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT ONLY IF CHRIS REMAINS EXACTLY BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A REVERSAL OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.

So there is some dispute about the storm's strength and path. Looks like TFM and South Florida has to return to tropics watching. Lets hope and pray Chris dies out.

Open Post- Bright & Early, Outside the Beltway,