Jim Addison at Wizbang Politics writes on tomorrow's Florida Republican Senate primary.
Despite the entreaties of several prominent Florida Republicans, Governor Jeb Bush is not about to jump into the primary at the last minute. "Not gonna happen, wouldn't be prudent," as his father might say. It's too late to mount a realistic write-in campaign, and a failure on such a futile gesture would diminish his stature for possible future campaigns.I replied back in the comments sections.(Links to past posts of mine now added) One of the commenters suggested the Tom Gallagher replacing Harris scenario that I debunked in July.
HOWEVER, there are some truths we know: Katherine Harris will lose the general election to Bill Nelson, as would each of her less-well-known opponents on the primary ballot. YOU, the Florida Republican voter, have the choice of writing in Gov. Bush anyway. Please do so. If enough of you do, he might accept the "draft."
There is no downside to writing in Bush, since without him we are destined to lose the seat anyway.
Just think about it before you vote.
Gallagher is a 3-time loser for governor with a history of bad ethics (Owning insurance company stocks while Insurance commissioner) whose gotten two knucklehead awards from me since January. Harris has one. Tom Gallagher wouldn't win either.Jim replied back-
As to a write-in for Bush, its a pipe dream like the Gallagher replacing Harris scenario.
Bush won't get written in, Harris wins but loses in November, Crist will be the next governor. Murtha swamps Irey,(Flushing that Rightroots money down the drain and teaching that organization that you pick your battles carefully based on reality not fantasy) Republicans lose the house, Democrats gain 4 seats in the Senate.
Ah, yes, the Florida Masochist . . . cheery sort, aren't ya?Kevin Phillips? I had to look up who he was. Unless he's written for The New Republic or National Review I haven't read any of his writing.
With folks like you around, I'll never feel lonely for Kevin Phillips . . .
When Jim says cheery, he's obviously meaning the opposite. That I'm a pessimist. Maybe I am but what I really am is a realist.
I'm not the only one who has blogged on the futile Florida Senate race. Steven Taylor at Poliblog , James Joyner at OTB and State of Sunshine have come to about the same conclusions I have about the replace Harris scenarios and the November outlook in general for Florida. Note Dr. Taylor and I have also blogged on the many obstacles write-in candidates face. So I'm not the only one with these views.
And there is a downside to voting write-in for Jeb Bush tomorrow. It will drain votes from the other three republican candidates. It doesn't look likely any would win but a Bush write-in at this stage is more hopeless by a large margin. Plus this seat was lost by the Republicans in 2000, it won't be lost in November, it just won't be won back.
Sorry Jim but I won't give you a knucklehead award for either your Jeb Bush fantasy or wrong statement. I have better candidates for tomorrow's award.
I predicted a Nelson victory last December by the way. Before all the bad Harris news of the last six months.
I've also said Jeb Bush is unlikely ever to run for President or Vice-President. Some hints I've picked up over the last few years tell me that his wife would never like that kind of limelight shined on herself for it would be if Jeb ran for those offices.
TFM is a moderate conservative, a registered democrat and a realist. Any Jeb Bush or Tom Gallagher scenarios for November agaisnt Bill Nelson are just another conservative fantasy. Nelson is going to be re-elected.
Linked to- Bright & Early, Right Wing Nation,