Jack McKeon to return as Marlins manager in 2006?

There is a week to go in the 2005 season and no one is talking right now. Either McKeon or Marlins management. Jack McKeon is 75 years old and traditionally most managers are long retired by that age.

So the speculating for 2006 has started, something sports columnists do all the time. The Palm Beach Post's Greg Stoda is no different. In his column today Stoda writes about who he sees as the five most likely candidates.

1. Lou Piniella — He and the Tampa Bay Devil Rays are going to have lost almost 300 games by the time they're finished with each other after this third season together. Big deal. He's also won more than 1,500 games at various stops with a World Series title in Cincinnati along the line. The volatile Piniella might be exactly what the Marlins need to shake them from their malaise, and he's one of the few managers who's an attraction on his own.

2. Ozzie Guillen — The former Marlins coach is in his second season as a manager, and he's trying to keep the faltering Chicago White Sox from an horrendous collapse. The White Sox were 83-79 last year (same as the Marlins, by the way) under his rookie stewardship and might maintain the American League lead in victories this time around if they somehow straighten themselves out. Guillen, though, is hinting about leaving Chicago after this season regardless of what the White Sox do or don't accomplish.

3. Jim Leyland — The man who took the Marlins to their first World Series triumph in 1997, stuck around through one season after the dismantling of that team, re-surfaced in Colorado and quit there. Now, he says he wants to give managing another shot "in the right situation." That means somewhere he'd have a decent chance of winning another World Series crown. Hmmm.

4. Joe Girardi — The Marlins would do well to beat a bunch of teams to this punch. Girardi is the New York Yankees' bench coach at the moment, but he's going to run his own shop soon enough.

5. Larry Bowa — Florida wanted him as a bench coach this season, which would have made Bowa a successor-in-waiting for McKeon's chair. His hyperintense personality wore out everything and everyone in Philadelphia, but the kind of spark Bowa unfailingly provides (in the short term, at least) would serve to keep the Marlins from falling into lapses of lethargy.

Stoda concludes his column by saying Guillen is the man for the job.

Experienced sucessful managers, a coach on a high profile team, a high profile coach with some managing experience and t he manager of the day. The usual suspects one might say.

Would any of them be the best manager for the Marlins? I can bring up cases of sucessful MLB who had limited, unsucessful or absolutely no managerial experience before stepping into the right job. What was so special about Casey Stengel before he managed the Yankees? It certainly wasn't his record with the Boston Braves or Brooklyn Dodgers. Gil Hodges record in Washington wasn't good at all before taking over the Mets. Joe Torre's wasn't much better before he took over the Yankees. I could go on.

Look at McKeon. He had never managed a pennant winner alone a World Series champ before taking over the Marlins. The rest is history.

What will make a sucessful manager? You really hear this discussed. Bill James wrote a book on managing, that's enlightening but still leaves questions unanswered. Would a new manager work good with youth or does he prefer veterans? Is he easy going or intense? Too extreme to one end or another with rare exceptions usually doesn't work. High pressure managers wear out their welcome. Look at how many teams Billy Martin managed. Low pressure managers leave the team wondering who is running the outfit. Look at Chuck Tanner when he managed in Pittsburgh.

There's in game strategies. Does the manager like to Hit& Run? Steal bases? Platoon? Does he prefer power or high averages? Does he know how to put together a line-up? I remember the Marlins first manager Rene Lacheman. Why did the Marlins hire him? Because he was a coach on a sucessful team? Because Rene's record as a manager stunk, his lineups were horrible in Seattle and his personnel decisions often questionable. Namely Roy Howell and Ted Simmons over Randy Ready in Milwaukee. Make a 3rd baseman out of a 37 year old catcher who has never played the position.

Stoda's column is an opening. I just think we need to do a more in depth discussion of what a manager does bring to a team. It hasn't happened often in the past, so I won't get my hopes up.