Hasn't a clue

Don't you like forecasters? They always predict the worst and they are almost always wrong. Then if you think about it, the media only publishes the most dire predictions or news. Just look at New Orleans.

Here we have UN health official predicting as many as 150 million people dying from Asian Bird flu. The low number this official predicts is 5 million. The low number is scary if accurate. Still I tend to agree with James Joyner, this UN official hasn't a clue.

Friday Special- Cafe Oregano

A new flu pandemic could happen at any time and kill between 5-150 million people, a UN health official warned.

David Nabarro, who is charged with co-ordinating responses to bird flu, said a mutation of the virus affecting Asia could trigger new outbreaks.

"The consequences in terms of human life when the pandemic does start are going to be extraordinary and very damaging," Dr Nabarro told the BBC.

"It's like a combination of global warming and HIV/Aids 10 times faster than it's running at the moment," Dr Nabarro told the BBC.

The UN's new co-ordinator for avian and human influenza said the likelihood that the Asian virus could mutate and jump to humans was high.

Because it has moved to wild migratory birds there is a possibility "that the first outbreak could happen even in Africa or in the Middle East", he warned.

The comments came as agriculture ministers from the Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean) endorsed a three-year plan to combat the spread of the virus, and pledged $2m to fund research and training.